Media Release: The Bourse Factor Research Report Available on Atlas Website

Melbourne, 27th June 2014 – Atlas Pearls and Perfumes Limited (ASX: ATP) announced today that a commissioned report by leading investor relations company, Bourse Communications Pty Ltd, published under The Bourse Factor Research, is available for review on its company website www.atlaspearlsandperfumes.com.au.  ABOUT ATLAS PEARLS AND PERFUMES LTDAtlas Pearls and Perfumes (“Atlas”) is an Australian based pearling and perfume […]

The Investment Clock – Where Are We?

Are we heading towards the Boom Phase? The Australian sharemarket is putting in one of its best years yet with the All Ordinaries Index currently at 5,819 and looking to power up over coming months towards 6,000. Improving company earnings and another interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank to a 2% cash rate is […]

The Sharemarket’s Best Kept Secrets

There’s no better time to think big and get your message out to the market The CEO’s of listed small-cap companies are now in the box seat to get above the noise in the market during the current part of the market cycle. A further lowering of the cash rate by 25 basis points by […]

How To Get On The Radar

How Can Mining and Resource Companies Get Onto the Radar in the Media? Why do CEOs of junior explorers get it wrong when telling their story?RN: CEOs of junior explorers often struggle to tell their story simply. In nine out of 10 mining-company presentations, the information is the wrong way around: too much technical detail at […]

How Share Investors Can Avoid Investment Traps – 12 Useful Tips

1.     If the overall sharemarket is rising and individual stocks are also showing the same trend upwards, don’t sell too early if the price and volume is increasing. See if you can work out what is making the company’s share price rise in the first place. 2.     If a share price for an […]

Could the long awaited ‘Boom Phase’ be nigh?

A simple guide to understanding economic and market cycles The Australian sharemarket is putting in a consolidating performance so far in 2017, with the All Ordinaries Index sitting at 5,975 points at the time of writing. The sharemarket has a 52 week high of 5,880 with the US Dow Jones recently breaking through an all […]

Where are we in the market cycle?

2017 Prediction Earlier this year, Business News Australia reported that, “(b)ack in April last year, North said the All Ords would hit 6,000 points by the end of 2017. On 7th November North was proven right when the All Ords finally reached 6,000 points it had been nearly 10 years since it reached this level.” So […]

The All Ords has Finally Surpassed the All-Time High of 6,873!

Why an Index of 7,000 a Real Possibility It’s a time to take extra caution as we advance into the latest cycle and “keep your head whilst all those around you lose theirs” by Rod North, Founder & Managing Director, Bourse Communications What a rollercoaster ride the Australian sharemarket has been on over the past […]

THE BOOM PHASE BEGINS

9 O’Clock

The seeds of the recovery are now sown and eventually share prices will rise as un-employment, which is often regarded as a lagging economic indicator falls. Share prices move through a period of gradual increases from 6 o’clock until about 11 o’clock as commodities increase in price, overseas reserves are rebuilt and money becomes easier, subsequently property again becomes an attractive investment opportunity.

10 O’Clock

The improving economy leads to more aggressive market highs. A frenzy of interest and speculation begins, marking the beginning of the end of the recovery phase, which peaks when the economy is booming and everyone believes the good times will never end, as overseas reserves continue to rise.

11 O’Clock

More spending on government projects and infrastructure occurs in this phase, to create jobs, which increases the demand on private sector businesses. This in turn results in employment of more staff to cope with increased production needs. Lower interest rates then prompt businesses to borrow and invest in capital projects. Well before the Clock strikes midnight, wise investors have exited shares and are looking for the next investment opportunity.

8 O’Clock

During this time, companies are forced to become leaner and increase productivity. These measures and the slowly improving economy translate into increased company profits and this gradually stimulates share prices to recover. Investors who come into the market at this level often see excellent gains in the years ahead.

7 O’Clock

A recovery from recession begins with increased government spending and a sustained easing of interest rates. Interest rates fall to historically low levels and eventually a point is reached where long term investors see value in the market and start to accumulate the better performing shares – often you don’t need to look any further than the Top 50 companies for investment selection. With a lower demand for money and interest rates falling the economy is stimulated and share prices begin to slowly rise. Cash is no longer King and the value net of inflation begins to erode.

DEPTH OF THE RECESSION – THE RECOVERY PHASE BEGINS

6 O’Clock

6 o’clock marks the peak of a downward swing in the economic cycle. Investors are now either too scared, or cannot afford to borrow money and in response, interest rates slowly start falling. Individuals are now trying to pay off debt and spend less where they can, as well as trying to keep their jobs. A severe contraction in the labour market is often evident in this phase of the Clock. This can exacerbate recessionary deepening, unless correction through government fiscal and Reserve Bank monetary stimulus, and the return of business confidence becomes apparent.

5 O’Clock

Poor business confidence means that new capital ventures are postponed and Initial Public Offerings become a thing of the past. This is a time when capital is near impossible to raise and banks are not lending. Less spending and higher interest rates result in lower demand, which results in less production. Consumer confidence is at a very low level with demand for goods and services coming under enormous pressure. With fewer sales there is a squeeze on earnings, resulting in profit downgrades; and economic rationalisation becomes a hot topic in the boardrooms. The economy slows to the point where productivity stalls and then declines. When this happens for two consecutive periods the economy is said to be in a recession.

4 O’Clock

Decline into recession begins as business confidence starts to fall and consumers stop spending. Investors find little value in either shares or property and with impending trouble on the horizon fixed interest securities and cash become popular again – Cash is now King. A flight to quality assets occurs to protect what remains of an individual’s wealth. Often the gold price escalates at this time as it is seen as a store of value against worsening economic conditions. The dollar can also come under pressure to find the right level of adjustment in line with the prevailing economic ill winds relative to the rest of the world.

THE RECESSION PHASE BEGINS

3 O’Clock

Before the Clock strikes midnight, savvy investors have exited shares and are looking for the next opportunity, having realised that there is likely to soon be a correction in the market. 3 o’clock sees the realisation of this correction and the consequences that will inevitably follow. Subsequently, more people are selling shares within this phase and the lack of demand triggers a sell off, a slump in share prices occurs and coupled with falling commodity prices the decline accelerates. High interest rates, still persisting at the beginning of this cycle, slow the economy and lead us into the beginning of the recessionary phase.

2 O’Clock

The rapid growth of the property and sharemarket cannot be sustained for more than a few years and eventually the economic slow down becomes apparent. Interest rates continue to increase until it is no longer viable for purchasers to continue investing in property and soon supply outstrips demand. As interest rates rise companies find it harder to make profits and this, combined with the booming property market and the fact that fixed interest investments now seem more attractive, causes share prices to begin to fall or at least plateau.

1 O’Clock

As property purchases are primarily funded by borrowing; the increased demand for funds causes the cost of funds or interest rates, to rise. The Government recognises that the economy is overheating and introduces measures to enable a ‘soft landing’, by increasing interest rates to flatten demand by consumers. Often the inflation bogey can rear its ugly head in this period and monetary policy in the form of interest rate increases can be used to keep it in check. If the Reserve Bank over corrects in this period by raising rates too quickly and too high, it can cause the market to come to a grinding halt.

TOP OF THE BOOM – THE SLOW DOWN PHASE BEGINS

12 O’Clock


Boom Time is a period of greed and excess. Consumerism is at its most extreme, full employment provides for maximum optimism and a feeling of real and sometimes imagined wealth exists, where investors believe that the favourable conditions will continue indefinitely. A whole range of new players come into the sharemarket at this level, and often regret having little or no knowledge, relying only on what others have told them- that sharemarket investment ‘is easy money’. Smart investors get out on the way to and at the top of the boom by taking their share gains and moving into real estate as part of a longer term wealth creation strategy. At this stage of the phase, the rapid increase in the demand for real estate often pushes demand above supply and results in an increase in property prices. Property prices may rise well above real value and can come back to bite you later, if you have excessive gearing.